What is a model-based economic evaluation?

• A. An evaluation that uses only trial data
• B. An analysis using mathematical models and multiple data sources to estimate long-term costs and outcomes
• C. An analysis based on quick estimates
• D. An analysis focusing only on short-term costs

Answer: (B)

Model-based economic evaluation uses a mathematical framework to estimate long-term costs and outcomes by combining data from multiple sources. It builds a decision-analytic model that simulates how a disease and its treatments unfold over time, capturing costs, health effects, and quality of life across a lengthy horizon, often a lifetime. Data from randomized trials, observational studies, published literature, and expert opinion feed the model, and the approach explicitly explores uncertainty with sensitivity analyses and scenario testing. This method is especially useful for informing value-for-money decisions when long-term effects or downstream costs are important but not fully observed in a single study. Using only trial data limits the analysis to short-term results and specific populations, quick estimates lack methodological rigor, and focusing on short-term costs misses downstream health and cost effects.